Chance Of Severe Thunderstorms Late Afternoon and Overnight

There is a Slight Risk for severe weather today for southwestern into southern North Dakota along the South Dakota, ND border (see Image 2 below). A surface low moving northeast off the Rockies into SD will bring in low-level moisture (dew-points high 50's to low 60's) with the advancing warm front into South Dakota and southern North Dakota. Isolated thunderstorms will start to fire off in the late afternoon in wester ND stretching down into western Nebraska. Low-level shear and Mid-level flow will support supercell development (mostly SD and south). The main concerns will be damaging winds in excess of 60+ mph wind gust and damaging hail. The potential for isolated tornados does also exist. Most likely within the level 3 risk area but not limited to only the level 3 area, but also the level 2 area. I find it very unlikely for a tornado threat within the level 1 risk area but you can't quite rule out the possibility of a quick spin-up in western ND and eastern SD.

As storms fire into the evening, they will become more widespread and turn into a line of storms (QLCS) traveling east-northeast along a cold front. As storms push further east into ND they will run into more stable air which will minimize the severity of these storms but showers and thunderstorms will still be possible overnight into early Monday morning for the F/M area.



Justin Storm