The LRC continues to cycle right on schedule. The pattern this year is a complicated one with many influences acting on the pattern collectively but the pattern is absolute and is cycling regularly.
The LRC which stands for Lezak Recurring Cycle is named after meteorologist Gary Lezak, the founder of the LRC and the weather forecasting company Weather2020. The LRC methodology, simply put is that each fall, a new unique weather pattern sets up varying in length each year, then cycles through the following year until a new pattern forms for the following fall. In most years the LRC cycle lasts anywhere between 40-60 days but can be shorter or longer. Once the pattern length can and has been identified, one can use the methodology to determine what the weather pattern is going to look like through the following year and predict when large-scale features that would heighten a higher probability of storms, heat waves, cold snaps...etc will occur.
There are influences that act on the LRC such as seasonal differences, El-Nino and La-Nina, the Arctic Oscillation, as well as others. However, the LRC is the centerpiece of the puzzle for forecasting especially long term, which is really anything more than 10-14 days, upwards of 9-10 months.
The LRC is not a perfect forecasting tool, but with an accuracy of 70-80+% upwards of 6-9 months in the future, it is beyond a homerun in terms of weather forecasting and predictions. Today’s numerical weather forecasting models can’t even consistently come close to that more than 10-14 days out. The LRC is a patent pending model and in my opinion and others, ‘The forecasting model of tomorrow’.
There has been quite a bit of controversy and skepticism surrounding the LRC, as most things that are new, that goes against what is thought to be known, or not what you were taught. It will be the next generation of weather forecasting long term in my opinion. Gary is making worldwide news about the LRC and it is growing in users as well as credibility. But there of course will be nay-sayers and skeptics. Rightfully so though!
In the science world controversy and skepticism is a good thing. I myself was a full skeptic as well when I was first introduced to the LRC three years ago. “There is no way this is possible,” I said back in 2020. That's the same thing that numerous others are also saying, or at least trying to say. If you cant see how it works I don't blame you for being skeptical. But to be blind and immediately say it's impossible, in a way is ignorance if you’re unwilling to try and learn more about the LRC or accept the concept. Unless you understand the LRC, its methodology, and how to use it, I can understand how it may be hard to accept, but it is 100% real and does works!
I'll show you one quick example of the LRC in action. Last year's LRC cycle was identified at about 63.5 days in length. The cycle oscillated at 62-65 days in length but averages out at 63.5 days. Last year's signature storm followed this to a tee (Image 1). Reappearing roughly every 63.5 days, See images 1 and 2 below. This map shows the upper-level atmospheric pattern at 500 MB, as well as the severe weather risk outlook for the corresponding timeframes. This feature was responsible for several severe weather events and outbreaks, including a tornado threat in the Red River Valley in October, and a historic wind storm in December that brought tornadoes into Minnesota and Wisconsin. In February, April, and June another severe weather threat was produced by ‘this’ storm system. All of these severe weather threats were forecasted with the LRC back in mid-December after the pattern length was identified.
Now for this year’s LRC pattern.
Let me explain how I'm doing this. I will be highlighting ‘windows’ for when I expect an upper-level wave that would support a higher probability of precipitation or storms in our area. Red corresponds to more likely, yellow represents less likely but possible, and or could develop out of our area. Im not highlighting every minor chance for rain. In some instances, there will be three days circled. This doesn't necessarily mean that all three days will storm, but within that time frame, I expect an upper level wave to track through ‘our area’ that could support a chance of bad weather ie storms, rain, or snow. Some instances may result in most of the day being dry and decent but then a passing warm/cold front pushes through and we get some storms that develop along it, or perhaps an overnight event. Due to influences that act on the LRC pattern, a couple of these systems may ‘wobble’ and push further north, south, east… etc.
The main storm track is and will likely continue to be south as seen in Image 3. The darker area is where a higher percentage of average rainfall is expected to fall. The trend in temperature is also presented in the image as an average over the highlighted area and over the course of the spring and summer. In the lower right hand corner, a bar graph shows precipitation. Each bar is 1 week, bars above 100% would indicate a wet week while bars below 100% indicate a dry and or drier week.
Based on my calendar outlook using the LRC methodology, and the precipitation map one can cross reference which storms show a higher potential of being more wet, and which dates hold a lower chance of heavy rains/moisture. I'll try to decipher this as well below. Image 4 is similar to image 3 but highlights Cass county based on the patent-pending LRC model.
March: Image 5
I see a couple more potential storms as we battle through the last couple of weeks of March. First, the system marked for the 16th - 18th on the calendar (Image 5). Ia the current wind we had been dealing with while most to all of the snow fell in Minnesota. Next another system around the 22nd - 24th. This storm has dove just south of our area within the southern valley and mainly affected areas of South Dakota and southern Minnesota the last couple of cycles. This has been the trend most of this winter, with the main storm track being south. This trend may continue for March, but as we go further into spring and the jet stream weakens and lifts further north, these storm systems should follow. I see two storm systems possible in the last week of March turning the page into April. I don't see any rapid increase in temperatures for March or the beginning of April.
April: Image 6
The first couple weeks of April look wet primarily the second, not saying it will rain and or snow every day but I see three systems in that time frame. Two look of decent strength and one not as much. One may drop south of our area, following the main storm track from Nebraska and South Dakota, into southern Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The first storm system which I find a higher probability of targeting areas further south as explained above comes somewhere between the 3rd, 4th, and 5th of April. Then right around Easter, the 9th and or 10th, a potentially big storm. This storm if it doesn't come in two waves of energy will likely be a classic spring storm with severe weather in the warm sector (likely into the central plains) and a blizzard or snow+wind on the back side. Exactly where that will set up is a little in question but in my opinion, would favor the western half of North Dakota. Another system looks possible that could be another snowmaker for eastern North Dakota around the 13th/14th. After that things look to quiet down and ‘dry out’ until the end of April into the beginning of May when the pattern looks to turn more active and wet. Temps don't look to warm up quickly through April, at least for the first half of April. Will likely see a long winter or late spring taking off into May. This could contribute to a late plant for farming. Additionally, potential frost/freeze in the 1st to 2nd week of May, potentially bleeding into the third. Severe weather will likely hold off outside of April but I see some potential for the last weekend, it will likely favor south and east.
May: Image 7
May looks to be a bit on the wet side as well. Starting out May looks ‘dry’ but the second week going into the third week, activitie looks to increase. Im highlighting around the 11th-13th, and around the 15th-18th. The 11th-13th storm could be a bigger storm or at least in moisture, and could potentially be a two or three-day rain chance if upstream blocking is in place. After that, the 28th to 29th, with a couple of possible systems sprinkled in between. As mentioned in April, I see a potential for some frost possible the first couple of weeks in May. Some severe weather has potential the 11th-13th system, but again it may favor south and east. This will be something to monitor. Additionally, I think one of our higher chances will come at the end of May around the 29th for severe weather.
June: Image 8
Looking into June the month looks drier than others, which if April and May deliver a decent amount of moisture, I think will all be looking forward to a drier month. Although we all know all it takes is a couple of good isolated or scattered thunderstorms to deliver a decent amount of water…that will remain possible but, I don't see a higher potential for wider-spread heavy rains. Here are some dates I've got selected for storm systems that could produce some rain and storms. The 2nd/3rd, 17th-19th, and 23rd/24th. A couple of possible systems could pass through or around our area from the 6th through the 10th and the 26th/27th.
July looks to be a split in wet vs dry weeks. Starting off with the first week, I've highlighted between the 1st and 2nd, as well as the 6th and 7th for two more likely possible storm systems holding severe weather potential. The 4th of July does have a minor chance of something, but I'm not highlighting it as will focus on the two systems mentioned above. Weather should dry out for the second week with a possible system around the 12th-14th before the pattern turns more active in the last two weeks. I'll highlight the 17th and 18th, 22nd and 23rd, as well as one or two storms the last week of July.
I'll hold off on the August and September calendars for now but August looks ‘dry’ from this standpoint with a possible heatwave before turning wet the last week or two. September also looks drier outside of a wet week mid-month
As a whole this year looks to be near average temperatures with near to slightly above average rainfall with higher amounts found south in northeast ND southwest SD, southern and central MN, and northern WI. Western ND looks a bit on the drier side with below average temperatures, not to say there won't be warm weeks, but the summer as a whole (average). I see potential for a couple of heatwaves or warmer/hotter temperatures around mid/late June, mid July, and the first half of August. Not to say we won't likely have some severe weather in the Northern Plains but most will likely focus in the southern half of the United States and points eastward.
Gary offers a newsletter-style custom forecast dedicated to helping people know what the weather is doing, and what it will do several months down the road with a proven track record and accuracy of up to 80+%. Gary is 3-3 and about the be 4-4 on his severe weather outlooks ranging from 50-150 day outlooks for 2023. You can visit his website and signup for his forecast, which can help you plan accordingly for your business, recreation plans, and or agribusiness here https://weather2020.substack.com