The Weather is cycling regularly and the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) is right on schedule. The next storm is expected to track cross country bringing a threat of snow and wind for some, rain, and severe weather potential for others as we round out the month of February. Predicted back in December of 2023.
This year’s LRC has been complex with many influences acting on the pattern, but it continues to cycle regularly and the next storm will cross the country in about a week. Here is the latest European model as of 2/21/24 12z for this storm track and intensity, Tuesday morning through Thursday Morning 2/27/24 – 2/29/24.
Now let’s tie this in with the LRC.
The LRC methodology is that the weather is cycling regularly above us. We are in the fourth cycle of this year’s LRC. I want to show you the past couple of cycles, cycles two and three of this storm.
Here is cycle two when this storm came across the country for the second time, looking at the 500 MB level (appx. 18000 AGL) on November 25, 2023.
The dip you are seeing is called a trough and the upper-level wave of previously mentioned low pressure (storm). Here is the third cycle January 11, 2024. Roughly 46-47 days later.
Looks fairly similar to what happened just 46 days prior. This storm produced a severe weather risk in the Southeast and portions of the East Coast. See the severe weather risks below for this storm back in January.
Now let’s take a look at this storm in cycle four. This is the latest (2/21/24 12z) European 500mb chart. Roughly 46-47 days later from what we previously looked at. As well as the outlook from the SPC.
There are a lot of similarities once again. Right now there are a lot of unknowns on this storm on the exact track but it is likely to follow a similar track as what happened back in January. Snow looks likely in areas of the northern/central plains into the Great Lakes along with severe weather potential in the Southeast and portions of the East Coast. Let us give this storm a couple more days to come more into focus… More on this storm later!
Meteorologist,
Justin Storm
