While the calendar suggests spring, the atmosphere is still cycling through a segment that previously produced much stronger winter conditions earlier in the season.
For our agricultural partners, this matters. Timing is everything during planting season, and recognizing that these colder segments are still cycling through the atmosphere provides critical decision-making insight. While this particular event was not as damaging as its winter counterpart, it still did produce the cold. This came on the heals of a major North Dakota snow just a few days earlier.
What is on the way?
A very active and evolving pattern is now taking shape, and it is right on schedule within the LRC framework. As we move forward through this cycle, we are tracking a stormy setup that will impact multiple regions, with increasing moisture return, strengthening dynamics, and expanding precipitation coverage. This is not just a one-day event — it is part of a larger recurring segment that has already proven itself in prior cycles.
Droughts are either expanding or contracting. Drought conditions across the Rockies and Central US are expanding:
Weather 2020As we analyze the latest data, the signal is becoming more pronounced. Drought is not static — it is always evolving, and right now the trend is clearly leaning toward expansion across key agricultural regions. Areas that had seen improvement earlier in this cycling weather pattern are now slipping back into dryness, while other regions are intensifying in severity.
When you compare these two snapshots, the trend becomes unmistakable. Drought has expanded both in coverage and intensity, particularly across portions of the Plains and into key agricultural corridors. What was once a more fragmented and localized pattern in late December has now evolved into a more connected and organized area of dryness.
Good news that much of ND is drought free, however, our friends to the east in Northern MN have some pretty dry conditions.
There is some relief in sight, but we have been through this a few times in the past few months. Here are the rainfall forecast maps from the various medium range computer models:
Most regions are forecast to receive meaningful rainfall over the next two weeks, while a few areas are likely to be missed once again.
As we look ahead, the pattern is becoming increasingly active, and importantly, this is happening right on schedule within the LRC. A series of storm systems is now lining up, and this setup is not random — it is part of a recurring segment that is now expressing itself in a more spring-like form, and it is related to a stormy 10-day stretch in November.
This slide highlights the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above the surface, where the true structure of the atmosphere is revealed. At this level, we can clearly identify at least three distinct storm systems embedded within the jet stream, each representing a wave of energy moving through the pattern.
The setup is classic for this time of year. Storm #1 acts as the lead system, beginning to organize moisture and instability as we head into Sunday. Behind it, Storm #2 and Storm #3 follow in sequence, reinforcing the pattern and increasing the overall risk of impactful weather. This type of multi-wave structure is often where we see the highest potential for severe weather, as each system builds on the environment left behind by the previous one.
What makes this particularly important is the interaction between timing, track, and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. If these elements align, some regions could see significant severe weather outbreaks, while others may primarily benefit from much-needed rainfall. And, of course, there are some of our local areas that won’t get the beneficial rain at all.
There are increasing signals that the atmosphere and ocean are beginning to align toward a developing El Niño pattern. While this is still in the early stages, global models and ocean temperature trends suggest that a transition toward a moderate, and possibly stronger El Niño, is becoming more likely as we move deeper into the year.
At this point, it is important not to overreact to any single model run or early-season signal. As we have seen in the past, these large-scale patterns can evolve and shift over time, especially during the spring and early summer months. However, this is something that clearly has our attention, as El Niño can play a role in influencing jet stream positioning, moisture distribution, and seasonal storm tracks.
Within the LRC framework, El Niño is not the driver of the pattern, but rather a factor that can modulate how the pattern expresses itself. Understanding how these two interact will be key as we refine longer-range forecasts heading into late summer and fall.
We will continue to closely monitor these trends in the coming weeks and months and provide updates as the signal becomes clearer.
The Updated LRC Model Predictions
The LRC model, which extends forecasts out one full year, is now entering what we consistently refer to as its “sweet spot” of accuracy. With the pattern fully established and cycling consistently, confidence is significantly higher in how these segments will express themselves through late spring and early summer. This is where the LRC provides its greatest value — not just identifying trends, but pinpointing timing windows and regional impacts weeks to months in advance.
Over the next several slides, we will walk through the precipitation forecast from now through June 30, highlighting where the atmosphere is favoring wetter conditions versus areas that may continue to struggle with dryness.
The LRC model is clearly identifying a sharp gradient in precipitation across the Northern Plains, and this is one of the most important signals in the current forecast. Parts of North Dakota are projected to receive around 10 inches of rainfall over the next three months, which is above average and supportive for soil moisture and crop development.
However, just to the south, the story changes quickly. Portions of South Dakota are forecast to receive closer to 5 inches of rainfall during the same period, which is only about half of their normal precipitation. This is a significant deficit, especially as we move deeper into the growing season when water demand increases.
How will the developing El Nino effect the upcoming growing season for the N. Plains? Be sure to tune into the LRC spring/summer outlook on Thursday April 16th on the Jay Thomas show!!!
