A Tropical Storm Is Likely Within Two Weeks
Weather 20/20 Tropical Update • Plus the evolving heat wave and North American weather pattern
Welcome to the Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report
A special welcome to all of our new subscribers from around the world! We’re excited to have you with us as we continue exploring long-range weather forecasting through the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) and the cycling pattern that set up last fall and continues today.
We believe we are now 7 to 14 days away from the development of what will likely become Tropical Storm Cristobal, as we get closer to the three forecast windows we have been sharing with you since we put the hurricane season forecast out in April.
We’ll also take a look at the expanding heat wave across North America, the evolving upper-level weather pattern, and how these larger-scale atmospheric features fit into this year’s LRC.
Let’s get started with a look at the seasonal forecast issued in April:
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been remarkably quiet so far, and the developing El Niño is likely one of the primary reasons why. We’ll take a much deeper look at the warming tropical Pacific Ocean in an upcoming report, as its greatest impacts are more likely to be felt later this fall and into next winter.
Our preseason forecast continues to call for only 8–12 named storms this hurricane season, well below the long-term average. However, a quieter season does not necessarily mean a weak season. It only takes one storm to make it memorable, and we still expect two or three hurricanes to strengthen into major hurricanes. So while the overall number of storms may remain below average, we must not let our guard down.
Tropical Storm Bertha was produced by one segment of this year’s LRC. As that segment cycles back into place in late September into early October, we expect conditions to once again become favorable for tropical development. This is one of the three primary forecast windows in our seasonal outlook and remains a period we will be watching very closely.
The other two primary forecast windows are now approaching. The first extends from mid-to-late August into early September, with the greatest potential for tropical development across the eastern Caribbean and surrounding Atlantic waters. The favored track could then take a system toward the Gulf of Mexico or near Florida.
Before we get to the rest of the hurricane risk windows & the set up across the United States and North America.
United States and North America, let’s take a look at today’s video:
The second window follows shortly afterward, from late August into mid-September. During this period, the favored development region shifts farther east, while the highest probabilities favor a track toward Florida and the southeastern United States.
These remain the three primary tropical forecast windows identified in our preseason outlook. We’ll be monitoring each one closely to see how this year’s hurricane season performs.
This Week’s Developing Weather Pattern
The atmosphere is continuing to organize into the same large-scale pattern we’ve been tracking for months, since this pattern evolved last October & November. The anchor ridges and anchor troughs remain in their expected locations, helping guide the jet stream and determine where heat, storm systems, and tropical development are most likely.
There has been a dominant feature known as an anchor ridge that has had major impacts on the ski areas, and now on the summer fires. This semi-permanent feature is likely a major reason the state Colorado experienced below-average snowfall this past winter and why the summer monsoon has been so limited. When an Anchor Ridge remains in place, storm systems tend to weaken or are forced around it, leaving Colorado warmer and drier than normal.
The Southwest anticyclone—our “Heat Wave Creating Machine”—continues to dominate the southern and central United States. Meanwhile, energetic disturbances are rotating through the northern jet stream across Canada and the northern tier of the United States.
By August 11, the anticyclone is forecast to be centered over the 4-corners states. At the same time, we’ll be watching the Caribbean and western Atlantic closely as the atmosphere becomes increasingly favorable for tropical development.
By August 18, we are getting closer to entering the heart of the forecast window for the next tropical system. The atmospheric pattern continues to support the heat wave across the southern United States while conditions become increasingly favorable for tropical development across the tropical Atlantic waters. Whether the first system becomes Tropical Storm Cristobal or strengthens beyond that will depend on the smaller-scale environment, but the larger-scale pattern is aligning with what we’ve been forecasting for months.
The National Hurricane Center has now introduced its first 7-day outlook highlighting this area for potential tropical development. At the same time, several operational forecast models are beginning to indicate development, including this morning’s GFS, which develops a tropical system near the northeastern Caribbean around August 18.
The expanding heat wave reaches its peak this weekend. Widespread 100° to 110° temperatures will stretch from the Desert Southwest into the central Plains, while 115° is possible in the hottest desert locations. This is the same persistent anticyclone we’ve been tracking for months, and it continues to dominate the weather pattern.
By early next week, the heat remains intense across the Plains and southern United States. A cold front will bring welcome relief to parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, with some locations dropping into the 70s, but much of the southern half of the nation will continue experiencing well-above-average temperatures.
The 15-day rainfall forecast continues to reflect the upper-level pattern. Frequent disturbances moving through the northern jet stream should bring timely rainfall to portions of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, supporting late-season corn and soybean development in many areas.
Farther south and west, rainfall will be much more variable. The persistent Anchor Ridge will continue limiting widespread precipitation across the central and southern Plains, with many areas depending on scattered thunderstorms for relief. Some farms will receive beneficial rain, while others may continue to miss out, making soil moisture increasingly important as crops move through key reproductive and filling stages.
There is some hint that the summer monsoon may produce some heavier thunderstorms over Colorado, and maybe even where I live in Golden, but I am not holding my breath. I will be keeping my eye to the sky!
Thank you for joining us for this week’s Weather 20/20 Tropical Update. As the first of our three tropical forecast windows begins to unfold, we’ll continue monitoring both the tropics and the evolving upper-level weather pattern very closely.
On Tuesday, we’ll take a much deeper look at the developing atmospheric pattern as we begin turning our attention toward harvest weather. We’ll examine what the LRC is signaling for late August, September, and the early stages of harvest across North America.
Have a great weekend, stay safe in the heat, and thank you for your continued support of Weather 20/20.
Gary Lezak
